Breakthroughs in scalability, error-correction and infrastructure have led to an accelerated timeline for quantum advantage.
Most people working in the field, however, believe that quantum computers will be able to solve problems that classical computers can’t solve within the next 10 years.
This is according to a recent survey of 927 people with associations to the field of quantum computing (researchers, executives, press, enthusiasts, etc.) conducted by QuEra. Of those surveyed, 74.9% “expect quantum to be a superior alternative to classical computing for certain workloads” within the next 10 years.
Quantum computing is one of those “just around the corner” technologies that have the scientific community split. Tech outfits such as Google and IBM have gone full throttle with both research and development and marketing as if they’re already here, while many independent researchers have claimed quantum computers will never work.
When asked how rapidly the field of quantum computing was advancing, more than half said either “faster than I expected” or “much faster than I expected.” Among academics, that number rose to 55%.
But is the field advancing fast enough? The important question being asked by both enthusiasts and naysayers is, “When will quantum computers be useful?” Unfortunately, the answer is complicated.
Quantum’s problems
The field of quantum computing has changed significantly since Dyakonov published his aforementioned op-ed. In 2019, for example, one of the biggest challenges for quantum developers was infrastructure.
One of IBM’s early attempts at building a gate-based quantum computer, for example, resulted in a massive, steampunk-looking nest of piping and chips. Many people have likely seen the computer, which resembles a funky brass chandelier and is probably the most common image associated with news articles about quantum computing.
It also cost millions to build, barely passed the bar for quantum computing, and required a team of physicists and a massive laboratory just to operate it.
Today, in mid-2024, more scientists, labs, businesses and governments than ever are involved in quantum computing. Advances in error-correcting, fault-tolerance and infrastructure have led to room-temperature quantum function and numerous examples of quantum advantage.
Quantum expectations
The problem isn’t whether they exist; it’s whether they’re useful and can be scaled. Put a different way: nobody will care about quantum computers until they’re profitable, and they won’t be profitable until they can do important things that regular computers can’t.
However, this perspective doesn’t necessarily reflect the reality of cutting-edge quantum computing research. In 2024, there are scores of teams throughout the world working on myriad individual challenges associated with the development of useful quantum computers.
Quantum computers exist. The list of laboratories with functioning quantum systems includes IBM, Google, Microsoft, D-Wave, QuEra and scores more. There are several functioning quantum computers in both Europe and China.
Back in 2019, theoretical physicist Mikhail Dyakonov penned an op-ed declaring the future of quantum computing a dead end. Titled “The Case Against Quantum Computing,” Dyakonov’s article argued that scientists will never overcome the problems of noise, scalability and efficiency necessary to give quantum computers a useful advantage over classical computers.
Much like it would have been impossible to play Grand Theft Auto V on a classical mainframe built in the 1950s, the idea of solving currently intractable computation problems with a quantum computer built in 2019 also has no merit.
Quantum’s outlook
Quantum computers aren’t being developed to solve simple challenges. They’re designed to solve the computationally complex problems that will still exist once we’ve pushed classical computing to its absolute mathematical limit.
It’s not feasible to compare a quantum computer to a classical one. We probably won’t have personal quantum computers or quantum laptops for the foreseeable future for the same reason we don’t use gas turbine engines to power our televisions.
They’re not supposed to replace the iPhone, but one day, the weather, traffic and financial forecasts on its screen could become incredibly more accurate thanks to quantum computers.
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